(TheConservativeTimes.org) – Matthew Dowd, the former chief strategist for the 2004 George W. Bush presidential campaign, went on the MSNBC show “Lindsey Reiser Reports” and said that former President Trump holds a “much more dominant position” in 2024 than what he had in the presidential race in 2015/2016.
He explained that Gov. DeSantis of Florida is in a difficult position given that, while he had shown success in his home state’s re-election campaign against former Gov. Charlie Crist, Trump holds a level of incumbency for the presidency among Republicans that gives him a massive lead in the polls, “Eight years ago…Trump was at 14% or 15% in the polls. Today, he is at 50% or 60% in the polls.”
The takeaway is that the chance for Trump to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential race is much more likely than it was for him to win the nomination for the 2016 race. Recent aggregate polling from FiveThirtyEight shows Trump with 51.8%, DeSantis with 23.5%, former Vice President Pence with 6.7%, and all other candidates at less than 5%. In fact, since DeSantis’ recent campaign launch, he has only increased by 1.3%, while Trump’s polling has only decreased by about 0.6%. With a 30 to 40 point advantage on DeSantis, it looks almost guaranteed that Trump will be the Republican nominee to face President Biden in the 2024 general election.
In the Democratic presidential primary, a recent Emerson poll shows that, despite Biden’s job disapproval sitting at 51%, he leads with 71% to runner-up Robert Kennedy Jr. who is polling at 15%. With a 56-point advantage over Kennedy, President Biden, and Vice President Harris will likely be the Democratic ticket for November 2024.
This leads to speculation on the Republican side of who could be a good pick for Vice President and how Republicans can strategize to prevent an electoral college loss in 2024. Eyes will be on key states such as Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia come time for the general election.
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